05 August 2010

Can a Disruptive PV Technology Topple First Solar? (from GreentechSolar)

Eric Wesoff at Greentech Media raises some interesting questions for $FSLR investors and ponders whether there's a "new black swan improbable pyro-nano-quantum-thingamajig technology" waiting to displace thin-film PV:

As we watch First Solar lower their industry-leading costs from $0.81 per watt in Q1 to $0.76 per watt in Q2, we get a clearer picture of their cost trajectory. First Solar's roadmap sees their costs dropping another 20 percent to 30 percent by 2014. They also envision their efficiencies climbing to 14 percent from today's 11.1 percent. Is this the best that the solar industry can do?

The leading (and bankable) Chinese crystalline silicon manufacturers will continue to price their product exactly where it needs to be to win commercial and utility business.  And folks like SunPower, with their high efficiencies and high costs, will attempt to keep up. Other public companies without the benefit of very high efficiency, very low costs, or big balance sheets are going to be on the losing end of Shyam's Solar Shakeout.

So, why aren't there solar panels everywhere?

Read the full article here: Disruptive

(Disclosure: I hold long positions in FSLR. This post is for informational purposes only and is neither intended to be investment advice nor an offer, or the solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any securities.)
Enhanced by Zemanta