My Top 5 Reasons Cleantech Is Alive and Well

Here's My Top 5 reasons cleantech is alive and well:

 
1.) China. China finally seems poised to address its outrageous pollution problem. The Beijing Municipal Bureau of Environmental Protection estimates it will cost China upwards of $800 billion to clean its air. $800 billion. Cleaning up Beijing alone could cost as much as $163 billion. And its water doesn't fair much better: seventy percent of the groundwater in the north China plain is unfit for human contact. Not just consumption, contact. And only half the water sources for Chinese cities are safe to drink. The Chinese government says it will commit 1.7 trillion yuan ($277 billion) to combat air pollution over the next five years, which is a start, but until then we'll keep seeing scenes like the "LED sunrise" on Tiananmen Square that went viral.

LED sunrise on Tiananmen Square. Credit: ChinaFotoPress via Getty Images

2.) Google bought Nest for $3.2 billion. This is a cleantech success story. I don't care whether Nest Labs ever considered itself a cleantech company since its founding in 2011. If cleantech is the set of new technologies and business model innovations that help use natural resources more efficiently, effectively, and responsibly, then Nest, which took a ubiquitous, yet poorly designed technology (the thermostat), made it smart and fun to save energy in homes because its cool and easy to use. That is cleantech.

Nest thermostat. Photo: Nest Labs

3.) Solar, distributed solar. I know, solar was a dirty word for some investors, including the American tax payer, who got burned by solar 1.0. But there's a new game in town now that solar panels are cheap and financing distributed solar has become easier thanks to innovators like SolarCity, Sungevity, and the like. Installations are on the rise and investment is pouring back in.

4.) Tesla Model S. Motor Trend Car of the Year. 2014 Detroit News Readers' Choice Award as North American International Auto Show Most Innovative Vehicle. Yes, D-E-T-R-O-I-T News. Tesla  announced earlier this year it had sold 6,900 of its Model S in the fourth quarter -- twenty-five percent higher than the previous quarter and roughly twenty percent more than expected. And they recently announced the Model 3 (formerly, Model E, but it turns out Ford owned that), which will sell for about $40,000, Tesla is in line for growth and more growth. That's for a company with $27.25b market cap.

.

Tesla Model S. Photo: SEA

5.) Many more innovations are needed. Energy efficiency, recycling, water use, as well as purity and scarcity, and food are all ripe for cleantech disruptions, innovations, and solutions. There are still plenty of opportunities out there for entrepreneurs, investors, and others to tackle resource scarcity, use, and management. We've only just begun to address the issues our planet faces. And the need for innovative financing to enable these solutions is also going to grow. Call it what you will, "cleantech" is going to be a growth engine for many years to come.


Cleantech isn't dead. It hasn't crashed, it hasn't lost its value, and it has only grown more important and necessary. Cleantech is alive and well.


(NOTE: This is a slight, updated edit of an earlier post I wrote on The Green Skeptic.)

If I Could Speak at Davos: My Top 5 Reasons Cleantech Is Alive and Well

My colleague who posts as @EY_Cleantech had an interesting tweet this morning. She posited the question, If you could speak at the World Economic Forum on cleantech, what would you say?

Here is my answer.

Cleantech isn't dead. It hasn't crashed, hasn't lost its value, and has only grown more important and necessary.

Here's My Top 5 Reasons Cleantech Is Alive and Well:

1.) China. China is finally acknowledging and stepping up to the plate to address its outrageous pollution problem. China's air and water quality is breaking its ability to make progress. The Beijing Municipal Bureau of Environmental Protection estimates it will cost China upwards of $800 billion to clean its air. $800 billion. Beijing alone could cost as much as $163b. And its water doesn't fair much better: seventy percent of the groundwater in the north China plain is unfit for human contact -- not consumption, contact. And only half the water sources for Chinese cities are safe to drink. The Chinese government says it will commit 1.7 trillion yuan ($277 billion) to combat air pollution over the next five years, which is a start, but until then we'll keep seeing scenes like the LED sunrise on Tiananmen Square in Beijing.

LED sunrise on Tiananmen Square. Credit: ChinaFotoPress via Getty Images

2.) Google bought Nest for $3.2 billion. This is a cleantech success story. I don't care whether Nest Labs ever considered itself a cleantech company since its founding in 2011. If cleantech is the set of new technologies and business model innovations that help use natural resources more efficiently, effectively, and responsibly, then Nest, which took a ubiquitous, yet poorly designed technology (the thermostat), made it smart and fun to save energy in homes because its cool and easy to use. That is cleantech.

Nest thermostat. Photo: Nest Labs

3.) Solar, distributed solar. I know, solar was a dirty word for some investors, including the American tax payer, who got burned by solar 1.0. But there's a new game in town now that solar panels are cheap and financing distributed solar has become easier thanks to innovators like SolarCity, Sungevity, and the like. Installations are on the rise and investment is pouring back in.

4.) Tesla Model S. Motor Trend Car of the Year. 2014 Detroit News Readers' Choice Award as North American International Auto Show Most Innovative Vehicle. Yes, D-E-T-R-O-I-T News. Tesla recently announced it had sold 6,900 of its Model S in the fourth quarter -- twenty-five percent higher than the previous quarter and roughly twenty percent more than expected. And with work begun on the Model S sedan, which will sell for about half the $69,000 price tag of its big brother, Tesla is in line for growth and more growth. That's for a company with $21b market cap.

Tesla Model S. Photo: SEA

5.) Many more innovations are needed. Energy efficiency, recycling, water use, as well as purity and scarcity, and food are all ripe for cleantech disruptions, innovations, and solutions. There are still plenty of opportunities out there for entrepreneurs, investors, and others to tackle resource scarcity, use, and management. We've only just begun to address the issues our planet faces. And the need for innovative financing to enable these solutions is also going to grow. Call it what you will, "cleantech" is going to be a growth engine for many years to come.

That's what I would say if I could speak about cleantech at Davos.

Energy Transition and America's Future: Interview with Gregor MacDonald

Gregor MacDonald

For those of you who follow Gregor MacDonald (@gregormacdonald) on Twitter or read his excellent blog, Gregor.us, or were fortunate enough to catch his subscription-only newsletter and weekly web-TV program while it lasted on StockTwits, you know Gregor represents a thoughtful, studied voice on energy transition and possesses a macroview of the global economy.   

Currently, he's turning his attention to long-form journalism and is working on a piece addressing the global transition back to coal, which should be an important work.

I interviewed Gregor to get his insights on energy (especially renewables, coal, and nuclear) and our future.

GS: You recently expressed the opinion that renewables are going to replace nuclear. How far down the path are we towards a real energy transition?

One has to hold two competing ideas at the same time, here in the midst of our difficult journey through energy transition.  First, the world is tipping back towards coal as oil supply peaks and the five billion people in the developing world reach for the fossil fuel still growing in supply: coal.  And yet, from an extremely low level, renewables like solar and wind are starting to grow at an astonishing annual rate. 

One has to be cognizant and sober about scale, here.  Yes, power supply from solar and wind globally are tiny compared to coal and natural gas generation, but it is no longer out of the question that the first threshold -- matching the power generated by nuclear -- will be achieved by wind and solar.

GS: And what about nuclear?  In the wake of Fukushima, what are its prospects?

GM:  Fukushima does not alter the course of nuclear so much as it merely perfects the trajectory already seen in the past few decades: the slow decline of the nuclear industry. 

Growth in nuclear the past few decades has slowed progressively, the industry no longer attracts young people, and most important of all: the complexity of the technology has only served to increase costs -- at prohibitive rate.  The result?  Private industry has little or no interest in building nuclear power.  The energy return on investment is low, and also in decline; the liabilities are too great and can only be covered by governments.

What we will see in this coming decade, therefore, is that the return on investment for both solar and wind -- both in capital and energy terms -- will not only accelerate but will also pull away from the comparative proposition in nuclear and possibly even natural gas or coal power generation.  The speed of construction, the lack of complexity especially in solar, and the much reduced community opposition both in the OECD and Non-OECD mean that new power generation from solar and wind will come on line quickly, blowing past the hurdles that plague fossil fuels. 

Again, this does not mean renewables will "replace" coal and natural gas.  Not this decade -- and not the next either.  But the growth rates will diverge in a massive way, and the career opportunities for young people will swing hard in this direction.

GS: You've long expressed the opinion (one that I share) that coal is going to be with us for a long time to come. What does that mean for the future of energy?  What do you think needs to be done to ameliorate some of the environmental damages caused by fossil fuels?

GM:  I hope to articulate the large trends, in both supply and demand terms, which dictate why coal will be humanity's primary energy source over the next 20+ years, in my pending essay on coal.  That said, starting in 2006 when I realized that a second coal age was likely, I was also struck by another, obvious realization: that coal would create problems requiring solutions.  At the ASPO meeting in Washington last year, I suggested that technologies which mitigated coal emissions and which also burned coal efficiently in-situ would see enormous growth -- and would be enormously profitable.  

If I recall, a number of these have started to sprout and while this will not assuage environmentalists (who are correct that "clean coal" is little more than a mirage) I do think that given the poor emissions level now seen in the developing world is a standard worth raising.  And, I do believe China and India will eventually reach hard for new emissions technology.

GS:  You recently wrote than "Energy, not financial capital, holds primacy for the economy’s future."  Are we heading into a new era of constrained supply? What does this mean for the US economy?

GM:  In my view, the reason that at least 15 if not 20 million Americans are either underemployed or simply unemployed is that the economic system can no longer access enough cheap energy to create profitable output.  Sadly, this is why labor has been shifting hard to the developing world, where very low wages offset high energy input costs, thus securing profits for corporations.  But all is not lost.  

Over the past few years I've studied the US capability in exports, and also the potential rebirth of local economies.  In short, the US, despite the problems, decent infrastructure and low electricity rates that can be utilized for niche manufacturing.  Port cities such as Philadelphia, Seattle, Boston, and Portland, OR, also offer easy direct routes to world markets.  

Indeed, I would encourage interested readers to look at economic data from the late 19th century and notice the thriving cities in America during that time.  While it's true that many of the "price" levels that the US enjoyed in the 1980-2005 period--whether in houses or wages--will not be seen again, it's also true that reorganizing the US economy to remove a lot of the discretionary waste will bring revival.

In other words, America is now on course to become "poorer" in materialistic terms and the terms we came to understand in the post-war era.  However, in terms of life quality, America may very well be on course to finally reach a better destination.  We are still very rich in natural resources in an otherwise resource constrained world.  And, we are still risk-taking innovators.  Once we drop the project of Empire, with its excessive military waste and reinvest in ourselves again, a lot of these nascent trends will start to unfold.

China Leads in Cleantech, But Partnership Provides US Opportunties

Chris R. Brown

There are a number of credible voices on China and cleantech on Twitter.  One you may have overlooked is Chris R. Brown (@chrisrbrown).  He writes the China Solar Energy blog.  I recently interviewed Chris for The Green Skeptic.

Chris worked as a China policy analyst for US Naval Intelligence and the Defense Intelligence Agency and, later, as an analyst and researcher with Gerson Lehrman and Ergo Advisors.  He is now an independent consultant and freelancer. He holds a Master's in China Studies from the University of Washington, where he focused on Xinjiang, Kyrgyz language, Uyghur culture, and China energy issues.

 

We both recognize there are opportunities for the US and China to cooperate and collaborate on cleantech innovation. What are some of the opportunities with the best potential in your view?

Two opportunities with the best potential are: 1) US-China joint cleantech research and 2) US companies selling manufacturing equipment to Chinese PV module, cell makers. 

There has been a surprising amount of money both governments have pledged to research.  They have set up the $150 million US-China Clean Energy Research Center (CERC) that will support cleantech research on both sides of the Pacific.   

The best example of a US company profiting from China's commitment to cleantech research is Applied Materials and its Solar Technology Center in Xi'an.  It's the largest non-government solar energy research facility in the world. Several of the top Chinese PV companies are gearing up for increased production and companies that sell equipment used in manufacturing will do well.

I am less optimistic about US companies getting involved in China's domestic solar projects.  The country's solar market is still extremely small and major projects have run into difficulties.  I had high hopes for the First Solar utility level solar PV project in Ordos, Inner Mongolia and the eSolar CSP project in Yulin, Shaanxi.  The First Solar project is still live though behind schedule.  The eSolar project, however, seems to be dead in the water.

What advice do you have for US companies that want to work in China?

First find a strong, reliable partner.  There are layers of relationships that need to be maintained from the provincial government, provincial party leadership, municipal government, municipal party, sometimes provincial NDRC office and, with higher profile cases, national level NDRC and the utility companies.  Having a Chinese partner who you can trust is huge for maneuvering this complex web of relationships.

Another thing to keep in mind is that China should be treated as a collection of smaller countries in terms of energy policy.  This is why "Is China ahead of the US in developing clean tech?" is such a tricky question.  In level of investment, yes; in actual implementation and having grid-connected solar wind electricity, no.    

What are some of the Chinese companies you are watching?  How about US companies with a big China upside?

I am very interested in successful US-China partnerships.  One of my favorites is the ENN and Duke connection.  They have agreed to jointly work on solar projects in North Carolina and there are rumors they will be working together in Nevada on utility-level solar projects.

I watch Suntech closely.  I am particularly interested in their setting up a manufacturing plant outside of Phoenix, Arizona.  Why would a Chinese company set up manufacturing facilities in North America rather than taking advantage of the cheaper labor, property cost in China?  Suntech says that they are positioning themselves for a greater share of the future North American solar market. 

Santa Clara-based Applied Materials is doing interesting things in China.  They are one of the companies that sell manufacturing equipment to the Chinese PV cell and module makers.

What are your thoughts on China's pollution problem? Do you think China can continue to build its new green economy on the "back" of dirty air, water, and resource exploitation?

First of all, I wouldn't say China is particularly 'green'.  The current Beijing government is concerned with one thing - regime survival.   Energy is a problem because the Party's legitimacy rests on maintaining their high rate of economic growth. 

Lack of energy will cripple the economy and possibly lead to unrest.  China's growth rates since the early 70's have been the main piece of evidence the CCP has to prove that its strategy is working.  A slump due to energy shortages could seriously erode the Party's power.  So, Beijing is looking for any type of energy.  Yes, they are investing in solar but they are also investing in coal, nuclear.

Beijing is concerned about pollution but only when it could cause instability.  In some parts of the country, pollution has become serious enough that the central government takes it seriously but only when it is a health issue.  Being 'green' as some sort of global, save-the-planet consciousness doesn't interest them.

Who wins the cleantech race, China or the US? Does it matter?

Several studies over the last year or so have shown that China is investing more money in cleantech than the US.  There doesn't seem to be much debate there.  The people who say China is not winning the cleantech race point to the non-existence of a domestic solar market.  Chinese PV companies are geared for export. 

So, some say China is just cleverly taking advantage of the subsidies the rest of the world is pumping into cleantech to artificially prop it up since nowhere has grid parity. 

These same critics say that projects like First Solar's utility-level PV plant in Ordos, Mongolia are Potemkin Villages meant to fool the world into thinking China is 'green'.

Critics say China will never be serious about developing a domestic solar market while coal is so cheap. 

I disagree.  China is serious about developing a domestic solar market but implementation is a problem.  Beijing is serious about developing a solar market, first and foremost, because it would prefer to consume its own PV products.  China recently released its 12th 5-year plan and developing a domestic solar market is an important part of the plan. 

What's next for Chris Brown?

I am working with US and Chinese companies to facilitate cooperation and exchange.  I spent years analyzing China as a potential threat in the US intelligence community.  Now my big goal is to work to help the two sides profit while strengthening the world solar market.

Related articles

• First Solar, Chinese partner to develop projects (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
• GE Invests in Solar Thermal Developer (GE, GOOG, TAN, KWT) (247wallst.com)
• China keeps top spot in Ernst & Young Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Indices (sunnergyinfo.wordpress.com)

Green Skeptic Friday LinkFest - 04/01/11

No, the infographic above is not an April Fool's joke.  It comes from Seth Godin and compares deaths per terawatt hour of energy produced by nuclear, oil, and coal. The data comes from the World Health Organization. 

We found several interesting pieces on nuclear energy over the past week:

Author and environmental activist Mark Lynas explains to China Dialogue Why greens should support nuclear energy. 

Nuclear engineer Margaret Harding ponders Nuclear: The Optimist’s Conundrum.

While George Monbiot shares How the Fukushima disaster taught him to stop worrying and embrace nuclear power: Going Critical.

In the Navy

Timothy Reuter of IdeasOnEnergy reports on Secretary of the US Navy Ray Mabus's Council on Foreign Relations talk about the Navy’s efforts to transform how they use energy and their intention to become a catalyst for changes in overall energy consumption: Can the U.S. Navy reform how America produces and consumes energy?

On China

Derek Scissors, a research fellow on Asian economic policy at the Heritage Foundation, writing on Steve LeVine's Foreign Policy blog, explains why he expects China won't move off coal any time soon: Coal From Here to Eternity.

The BBC reported on a new Royal Society study that indicates China will overtake the US in science by 2013: China Syndrome.

A new Nature Conservancy study postulates that a Billion-plus people to lack water in 2050.  

Josie Garthwaite of Earth2Tech offers several reasons Why A Company Would Ditch A DOE Loan Guarantee.

A bill in South Carolina suggests federal light bulb restrictions are violation of states' rights: Bill would keep bulbs burning in Palmetto State.

Have a great weekend everybody.

Global Clean Energy Investment $243 billion; US Drops to 3rd

Once the top dog in clean energy, the United States dropped to third place in terms of investment, falling further from the top spot it held in 2008, with only $34 billion in private clean energy investments.

China continues to lead, according to a new report by the Pew Charitable Trusts, attracting a record $54.4 billion in clean energy investments in 2010 -- a 39 percent increase over 2009 and equal to total global investment in 2004. Germany saw private investments double to $41.2 billion and was second in the G-20, up from third last year.

"The clean energy sector is emerging as one of the most dynamic and competitive in the world, witnessing 630 percent growth in finance and investments since 2004," said Phyllis Cuttino, director, Pew Clean Energy Program. "In 2010, worldwide finance and investment grew 30 percent to a record $243 billion."

The good news is: investment in clean energy has bounced back from the recession, at least globally.  The question is, will the US be able to keep pace in the years to come?

That China leads will come as no surprise to readers of The Green Skeptic.  That the US is slipping further down the ladder is more disturbing to those of us who see the new green economy as a platform for our competitiveness in the global marketplace.

Related articles

• U.S. Drops To Third Place in Clean Energy Investment (blogs.forbes.com)
• U.S. drops to 3rd in clean-energy investment (scientificamerican.com)
• Clean energy investment hits record high (financialpost.com)
• U.S. drops to 3rd in clean-energy investment: Pew (reuters.com)
• China tops 'clean energy league' (bbc.co.uk)
• Does It Matter Which Nation Leads In Alternative Energy (247wallst.com)

Green Skeptic Friday LinkFest - 03/04/11

Hugo Peabody (aka Bobby Rydell)

Some important client work and my son's appearance as Hugo Peabody in his high school's production of "Bye Bye Birdie" kept me in Philadelphia this week (ya gotta have priorities), so you didn't see me at TED or ARPA-E or the MIT Energy Conference. Here are some links to stuff I've been tracking this week:

First up, this blog made bschool.com's list of 50 Best Blogs for Green Business Students. 

Next, few DOE and ARPA-E related items:

Elizabeth McGowan at SolveClimate asks Can Obama's Bold Stroke on Cleantech Innovation Survive Budget Cuts?

Katie Fehrenbacher at GigaOm's Earth2Tech lists 10 Companies to Watch For Out of ARPA-E

CNET's Martin LaMonica suggests ARPA-E a litmus test for energy R&D agenda and then asks Then what?

The best quote I've read from TED 2011: "I"m just going to show you a kidney we printed earlier." (Yes, a human kidney. Printed.) Explore this TED recap from The Guardian: TED 2011 roundup: bionic body parts, self-driving cars and Jamie Oliver

Now on to China:

Energy China Forum suggests China, U.S. should form strategic alliance in clean energy development. 

and Ann Goodman, co-founder and executive director of the Women's Network for a Sustainable Future, writes about How business women are helping push a green agenda in China.  

Closer to home:

The US Fish & Wildlife Service announced the Eastern Cougar Is Declared Extinct, With an Asterisk

A new study tries to explain why Conservatives are much more likely to deny "global warming" than "climate change". 

The Wall Street Journal announced its second annual ranking of The Top 10 Clean-Tech Companies.

And, finally, GoodCompany Ventures announced it is now accepting applications for 2011 Class of Good Companies: Be a GoodCompany.


Have a great weekend, everybody!


(Disclosure: I am on the advisory board of GoodCompany Ventures, a social enterprise accelerator in Philadelphia.)

First Solar: Great Expectations in the Sun

I've lived through the best of times and the worst of times with First Solar (FSLR).

Readers of The Green Skeptic know I've been long FSLR for so long. I'm not giving up now.

The company reports 4th quarter and full-year earnings after the close of the market today.

Perhaps in anticipation, there was a run-up on the stock this morning, although not as dramatic as last week's spike.

Over the past 52 weeks, according to SmarTrend Market Surveillance, shares of First Solar have traded between a low of $98.71 and a high of $175.45. It was trading this afternoon at $164.53, 67 percent above the low.

In the last five trading sessions, the 50-day MA has climbed 0.77 percent while the 200-day MA has risen 0.28 percent, according to SmarTrend.

Consensus seems to be the company will report a 6.7 percent rise in earnings-per-share (EPS) versus the same quarter a year ago.

"Regardless of its earnings report, most investors will be looking at its outlook for the coming quarter and full-year," as 24/7WallSt.com reported this morning. "Thomson Reuters' most recent expectation calls for full-year EPS of $9.10 on revenue of $3.76 billion, substantially more than 2010 full-year expectations for EPS of $7.63 on revenue of $2.6 billion."

FSLR beat the last two quarterly estimates, but still got hammered in after hours trading and continued on a downward spiral the following day. (I'm beginning to think my buddy Howard Lindzon puts the kabosh on the stock when he mentions it -- sort of like the Cramer effect.)

Here's why I still believe in FSLR:

FSLR recently expanded its cadmium telluride supply agreement with 5NPlus to 60 percent by 2013.

They recently signed an agreement to build the largest solar plant in China.

Despite subsidy cuts in Germany and a moratorium on new plants in Italy, FSLR is expanding in the US and Canada, along with the Indian and Chinese markets. The company has recently completed a new German manufacturing facility in Frankfurt.

While FSLR slipped behind China's Suntech (STP) as the world's leading solar manufacturer in 2010, they are still the first company to ship more than a gigawatt of capacity two years in a row -- and they plan to increase global production to 2.7 GW by 2012.

First Solar is still the leader in providing the lowest-cost-per-kilowatt modules, a position they don't seem to be giving up any time soon.

Oh, and there's that little factor of oil breaching the $100/barrel mark.

Looking forward to the earnings report and call.


(Disclosure: I hold a long position in FSLR. This post is for informational purposes only and is neither intended to be investment advice nor an offer, or the solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any securities.)

Green Skeptic Friday LinkFest - 02/04/11

NOAA/NASA GOES Project

Going to extremes this week -- from Florida, where it was in the 70s-80s to Philly and ice, ice baby...

The storm that rocked the Central Midwestern US and Northeast missed us, but would you look at that satellite image (at right)?

Here are some links for this week:

Katie Fehrenbacher of Earth2Tech asks, Are Consumers Ready for Home Energy Management in 2011?

John Thackara, writing in Design Observer, suggests WWF's Energy Report takes "global energy needs" as a given, but ignores the true costs of deploying renewable energy infrastructure: Renewable Energy: Salvation or Snake Oil?

The BBC's environment reporter Richard Black has a look at a Nature Conservancy report published in the journal BioScience and finds "one of the starkest conclusions I've seen about humanity's relationship with the oceans"..."Globally, 85% of oyster beds have basically disappeared.": Oysters clear seas for local remedies.

Teryn Norris of Americans for Energy Leadership catalogs The Rise of Innovation Hawks.

FrumForum's David Frum takes on Obama's 'China Envy.'

And, finally, you must read Umair Haque's "Ten Things You're Not Allowed to Say at Davos."

Have a great weekend!

Green Skeptic Friday LinkFest - 01/28/11

Snow Day at Water Tower

Snow hit us hard this week in Philadelphia, causing postponement of the Water-Energy Nexus conversation I was to moderate at Morgan Lewis yesterday.  The event, co-sponsored by the Cleantech Alliance Mid-Atlantic and the Greater Philadelphia Alliance for Capital and Technology (PACT), and featuring a top notch group of investors in the water space, has been moved to February 16th.  More details here.

Here are my links for this week:

NRG, ConocoPhillips and GE dive into energy venture capital together with a $300 million fund: Corporate Investors

Cold Fusion From Italy Nearly Commercial Ready. Now this could be a game-changer: Cold Fusion

News about a couple of Green Skeptic portfolio holdings:

EnerNOC Buys M2M for Its Wireless Tech and Utility Contracts in California, Midwest: $ENOC

Cree raises stakes in LED bulb race with a 60W replacement: $CREE

One Degree Solar, which supplies solar products in developing countries is trying to raise $8,000 in 50 days to win the Unreasonable Institute competition.  Join me in supporting this excellent social enterprise: One Degree Solar

DOE's Energy Innovation Portal links energy technologies with market opportunities: DOE

Advancing the clean energy partnership between the United States and China: China-US

And, finally, my pal Alexander Conrad is just trying to get his wife back from China.  But the USCIS is being a pain in the you-know-what.  Read this story and then write to Congressman Larsen to urge him to reunite this family. 

Have a great weekend everyone!

(Disclosure: I hold a long positions in ENOC and CREE. This post is for informational purposes only and is neither intended to be investment advice nor an offer, or the solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any securities.  I also serve on the advisory board of One Degree Solar and am co-founder and board member of the Cleantech Alliance Mid-Atlantic.)

80 Percent Clean Energy by 2035? I'm Skeptical, Mr. President

Source: AE2011, US EIA

I missed President Obama's State of the Union address last night because I was meeting with the good people at Investor's Circle.

On my way home, however, my Twitterstream was all abuzz  about the President's shout-out to a clean energy future.

Did he really commit to "80 percent of America's electricity will come from clean energy sources" by 2035?

Apparently, he did. It's right there in the transcript (along with a liberal sprinkling of the word "applause").

While many applaud the sentiment, some of us remain skeptical about the feasibility of such a target.

Don't get me wrong, I agree with two of the statements the President made on clean energy. The first is, "clean energy breakthroughs will only translate into clean energy jobs if businesses know there will be a market for what they're selling."

True enough. And it is also true that industry needs a clear signal on the price of carbon or the regulatory constraints they will face. Still to be determined how we get that, and no mention of it last night.

I also agree with the President that we need it all: wind, solar, clean coal, natural gas...and nuclear.

But 80 percent renewables clean energy by 2035? Well, I'm skeptical.

Even our own US Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook for 2011 (AE2011), released late last year, projects that renewables will climb to only 14 percent by 2035. This does not take into account natural gas, which they project will climb to 25 percent, or nuclear, at 17 percent.

If you take an inclusive view of clean energy, that adds up to 56 percent by 2035. With coal at 43 percent in the AE2011 (and the last one percent coming from "oil and other liquids") making up the difference, I'm assuming a large chunk of that is going to have to become -- rather quickly -- clean coal.

And by the way, China, with its aggressive investments in clean technologies, has set a goal of 15 percent of its energy from renewables by 2020 and 30 percent by 2050.

So forgive me if I remain skeptical about the 80 percent target. I'd prefer to see a realistic plan, with real targets, real investment (public and private), and a real demonstration that the political will exists to make it happen.

Green Skeptic Friday LinkFest - 01/21/11

Image by TalkMediaNews 
Chinese President Hu Jintao visited the US this week and cleantech cooperation was on the agenda, along with a flurry of collaboration announcements.

Terry Cooke attended the welcome ceremony and writes about it on his US-China Energy blog: What's the Real Deal with Hu Jintao's State Visit?

Timed with the visit was the announcement of an agreement between Duke Energy and China’s ENN Group to cooperate in developing coordinated technologies to power the cities and transportation: Duke-ENN. 

GE and China also announced plans to partner on clean coal technology:  GE and China.

US Energy Secretary Steven Chu wrote about the big picture on the DOE's blog energy.gov: "Discover and Deliver: The Big Picture on Energy". 

Secretary Chu also told the Conference of Mayors on Wednesday that the United States might not get its “groove back” as the world leader in manufacturing high-quality clean technologies: Chu Groove.

Meanwhile, Ucilia Wang pondered whether natural gas is a serious foe or friend to renewable energy: Don’t Underestimate The Impact of Natural Gas on Renewables. 

Scientific American's David Biello considered the path for scaling up renewables: Green Energy’s Big Challenge: The Daunting Task of Scaling Up.

Have a great weekend everyone.


 

US-China Cleantech: A Call for Cooperation and Healthy Competition

Image via Wikipedia

All eyes will be on Washington when Chinese President Hu Jintao comes to town to meet with President Obama this week.

While the two leaders have much to talk about, including the situation in North Korea, ongoing trade, currency, and human rights issues, we hope they leave room on their agenda for constructive dialogue on cleantech and energy.

 

The two countries began a collaboration in November 2009 launching the joint US-China Clean Energy Research Center, with financial support to the tune of $150 million over five years coming from both sides.
 

Yet recent conflicting statements from Obama administration officials demonstrate ambivalence when it comes to US-China relations on cleantech and energy.  

 

Department of Energy Secretary Chu has called China's cleantech ramp-up our "Sputnik moment"; while Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently called for "implementing the agreements on transparency, funding and clean-energy technology."

The Hu-Obama meetings could set the tone for relations.  Let's hope it is more about cooperation and healthy competition than posturing and protectionism.

 

 

 

Green Skeptic Friday LinkFest - 01/14/11

Okay folks, the picture at right has nothing whatsoever to do with cleantech, the environment, or green...well, unless you count the Jets colors. 

As my readers and Twitter-followers know, I am a lifelong New England Patriots fan, from the time they were the Boston Patriots.  (The famous Patriots place kicker, John Smith, of the "Snowplow Game" was a substitute teacher in my elementary school. Nice guy.)  Anyway, go Pats!

Here are my links for this week:

Home energy upgrader Mark Group Wins $1.7M Contract with PGW.

Global investment in green energy hit record in 2010, according to a report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

On electric vehicles:

Martin LaMonica of CNET's Green Tech blog, pointed us to this old study from NRDC about the emissions reductions of hybrid vs. plug-in cars. "Hybrids are clutcher than you think," said Martin: Plug-in (PDF),

Treehugger featured an interesting comparison of the life cycle environmental costs of combustion and electric vehicles: EV vs CO2,

and Mercedes-Benz Unveils its Electric Supercar at Detroit Auto Show.  I hope they have it in Philly in Feb!

Our pal Gregor MacDonald pointed out that new governors in Ohio and Wisconsin are "killing rail and building highways. Because driving cars on government roads with imported oil = freedom."

Meanwhile, my pal Wes at the American Partnership blog wrote about "The 112 Congress, Federalism and Transportation Policy"  


On the China-US relations front, three important posts:

Dance of US-Chinese 'Mutual Dependence' Moves from Wall Street to Main Street.
 

US Must Cut $100 Billion from Defense to Compete with China on Clean Energy. 

China’s Green Ambition, US Sees Red.

Finally, if you like my Tweets (or what you read here) please nominate me for a Shorty Award

Have a great weekend and Go Pats! (No offenths Jets fans...)

Green Skeptic Friday LinkFest - 01/07/11

Hockey in 1901.

A new year and some of the same old arguments and debates.  Will this be the year we break the logjam and get the new green economy running in the US?

Here are my links for the first week of the new year:

The Breakthrough Institute's Shellenberger and Nordhaus on Why Climate Science Divides Us But Energy Technology Unites Us

The new Chair of the House Science and Technology Committee, Texas Republican Representative Ralph Hall is not a climate skeptic.  He believes it is happening but wants to Probe 'Quality' of Climate Science

In a curious twist, the Sierra Club is suing to stop a landmark solar development: Whose Side Are They On?

Meanwhile, China's Goldwind wins wind energy order of 76.5 MW in Ethiopia: Goldwind.

and Arch, Peabody seek coal exporting deals to Asia. 

Ciris Energy raised $24 million to biochemically convert coal to methane at large scale and low cost: Serious about Ciris,

and battery company Ener1 Completes $25 Million Capital Raise, while

CleanTechies blog speculates that Electric Vehicles are in for Remarkable Ride in 2011.

And, finally, Paul Kedrosky talks about the "Webification" of Energy in Harvard Business Review's HBR Agenda 2011.

Have a great weekend everybody.

Joshua Brown's 3 Biggest Investment Fads Of 2011

Joshua Brown, one of our StockTwits favorites aka @reformedbroker, was on CNBC last night and offered three investment fads for 2011, including social networking IPOs, muni defaults, and commodities like agriculture.

Of special interest to Green Skeptic readers, Josh suggests avoiding anything tied too closely to the Chinese infrastructure build-out and he doesn't think natural gas is quite ready, but suggests "keeping an eye on it" and "maybe even start to nibble," especially if oil goes over $100, which several sources are fully expecting in 2011.

Green Skeptic Friday LinkFest - 12/17/10

Festivus Pole Lot, Milwaukee, WI

Time for Friday LinkFestivus!

First, Nissan delivered its first LEAF electric vehicles this week. Here is a video of the press conference in San Francisco: LEAF Lands

And in case you missed Nissan's polar bear commercial for LEAF, which has its fans and detractors (we think it's all in good fun): Polar Bear Hug

Speaking of polar bear habitat, if global warming is melting the Arctic, will Santa Claus go out of business?

There's been a lot of discussion about the a new, more realistic conversation starting to happen around energy:

Here's Andy Revkin on An Energy Menu for That Works for the Long Haul. The comments are worthy reading too.

And my take from earlier this week: It's About Time

The New York Times reported on the US Energy Department's prediction that the price of natural gas and electricity will be low over the next quarter-century, and crude oil will become more expensive but not radically so, contradicting some widely held notions: The Energy Future Ain't What It Used To Be

The myth of China’s switch to so-called clean energy has been "blown right out of the water," according to research by HSBC Bank: China's Coal Rush

One of our favorite green bloggers, Shari Shapiro, sheds light on the green impact of the stimulus: It's the Economy, Stupid

VantagePoint Venture Partners reportedly is raising a $1.5 billion fund to bridge the manufacturing gap of cleantech startups: VantagePoint. VantagePoint has been an investor in Tesla, China's Goldwind, BetterPlace, and MiaSolé, among other cleantech companies.

Kleiner Perkins debunks rumors that they are getting out of the greentech investing business. Greentech Media reports the firm made an investment in home energy efficiency player OPower as part of a $50 million round (along with Accel and NEA), and has joined Google Ventures investing in solar SaaS firm Clean Power Finance.

Finally, Heidi Moore, our favorite self-professed "handmaiden to capitalism," pointed us to this hilarious Xtranormal video about the plight of reporters faced with PR agents from hell:




Have a great weekend!

The Perils of Carbon Offsets: ‘Perverse’ CO2 Payments

Fluoroform

Writing in Yale Environment 360, Mark Schapiro reports on European companies that have been overpaying China to offset their own carbon emissions by incinerating a powerful greenhouse gas known as hfc 23.

If that's not all, those very payments have spurred manufacturing of an ozone-depleting refrigerant, hcfc 22, that is being smuggled into the U.S. and used illegally.

As Schapiro puts it,

That black market completes a global circuit unique to the era of climate change: From China’s industrial zones, the credits for the greenhouse gases — bought and sold as commodities on the global carbon markets — flow to European companies that need them to continue polluting at home, while the underlying ozone-depleting gas responsible for creating those credits flows to American companies seeking discounted refrigerants.

This speaks to the perils of carbon offset programs and potential abuses, but also that safeguards such as the NGOs set up to monitor offset programs do play a valuable role.  According to Schapiro, "Two European nonprofits, the Germany-based CDM Watch and the London-based Environmental Investigations Agency, kicked off the controversy when they asserted last summer that European companies were paying dramatically inflated prices for the emissions credits."


Read the full article at ‘Perverse’ CO2 Payments Send Flood of Money to China

Green Skeptic Friday LinkFest - 12/03/10

Smoke gets in his eyes on electric cars.

December already? Where did this year go? Oh well, looking forward to 2011.

We're planning some big changes for The Green Skeptic in the New Year, with expanded skeptical coverage to help you make sense of what is hype and what is ripe in the new green economy.

Meanwhile, it's Friday, so here are our links for this week:

The Guardian's environment correspondent, Jonathan Watts, looks at one problem not likely to improve soon: China's dependence on coal: China Coal.

Which may explain why China is starting to get serious about "clean coal": "China Shenhua to begin storing carbon in 2011"

More on China from the Harvard Business Review with an article by Thomas M. Hout and Pankaj Ghemawat on "China vs the World: Whose Technology Is It?"

Ernst & Young released their annual Country Attractiveness Indices report, which ranks 30 global renewable energy markets by scoring investment strategies and resource availability. Guess who comes out on top? Hint: It ain't the good ol' USofA.

In part because ratings-hungry pundits, like my FOX colleague pictured above, are pimping their bias against electric cars. I really don't get it, Rush, it's an American innovation, fercrissakes! "The Patriotic Endeavor Rush Limbaugh Won’t Support: Electric Cars"

and in part because we are falling behind in R&D, according to US Energy Secretary Chu, who calls the Energy Race our new "Sputnik" Moment. (PDF)

Finally, two veterans of the cleantech investing space weigh-in:

First Cleantech VC Rob Day on "How Cleantech VCs are reacting to the broken venture model"

and the renowned Dallas Kachan offers his cleantech predictions for 2011 in Renewable Energy World.

Have a great weekend everyone!