Global Climate Change: Flannery's 10 True Climate Predictions

Tim Flannery, author of The Weather Makers, stirred up some controversy earlier this week when he created a list of "ten predictions made by climate scientists that have come true (or are becoming true)" in The Times (of London):

1) That the Earth would warm as more CO2 was put into the atmosphere (Svante Arrhenius in 1893).

2) That we'd begin to see noticable changes to Earth's climate by around 2000 (some IPCC scientists).

3) That sea-level would start rising.

4) That Earth's Ice would start melting rapidly (James Hanson).

5) That hurricanes would increase in intensity (this one goes back to Alfred Russel Wallace in 1900).

6) That species would start going extinct as a result of climate change.

7) That Australia would start drying out (Hadley Centre scientists).

8) That tropical diseases would increase.

9) That food crops would be adversely affected.

10) That the CO2 would begin to acidify the ocean.

See the complete article, including links to original source material, more lists, and rebuttals: Flannery in Times Online

Social Entrepreneurs: Philanthropy and the Changing Business of Giving

Over on the Enterprising Ideas blog, part of the PBS NOW series on social entrepreneurs, they are talking about the latest report on giving in America. According to the report, charitable giving by Americans rose 4.2% to $295.02 billion in 2006, setting a record for the third-straight year.

Great news, of course. But what really got my attention in this blog post comes from blogger Lucy Bernholz, who writes the excellent blog about the "business of giving" called Philanthropy 2173. I track Lucy's blog and am always intrigued by her observations.

The blog post begins with commentary from the Enterprising Ideas staff, following up on a description of "product and service innovation" and the "commercialization of philanthropy."

"Not surprisingly, social entrepreneurs —- entrepreneurs with a humanitarian mission -— are also behind many of the new projects that facilitate donations and investments. Bernholz said social entrepreneurs are playing a major role in how the tools and mission of philanthropy are changing:

'There’s this whole industry of giving that social entrepreneurism is a part of largely because very smart businessmen have entered the field and are very excited about it.'

The post goes on to say, "Now that it's becoming 'more and more possible to make money by doing good,' as Bernholz puts it, there should be more willingness to invest in social entrepreneurs and their projects. After all, the social entrepreneurs are the people who are creating financial opportunities for doing good, says Bernholz. Like Muhammad Yunus’ Grameen Bank in Bangladesh and South Shore Bank in the Midwestern United States."

“'We’ve entered a period of philanthropy like no other,' explains Bernholz, 'because the federal government has gotten out of the business of funding domestic programs.' Foundations and individuals are picking up the slack by providing resources to projects—and many social entrepreneurs. Even if the government increases its commitment to domestic programs, Bernholz believes social entrepreneurship and its hybrid approach—drawing on strategies from the market as well as the public sector—to solving serious problems is here to stay:

"'The problems people are trying to solve are not caused by any single sector so no single sector can solve them.'"

Read the full blog post (and check out other posts and information about the program): Enterprising Ideas and Better Ideas.

And check out Lucy Bernholz's Philanthropy 2173 (You can also find out why it's called what it is...although Woody Allen fans can probably make a good guess.)

Global Climate Change: A Vacation Odyssey, Will NC Beaches Be Gone?

Vacationing on the barrier islands off the coast of North Carolina, I'm always struck by the fragility of the landscape here and, indeed, the perseverance of the human communities along this chain of islands.

Now a new study called "Measuring the Impacts of Climate Change on North Carolina Coastal Resources," analyzes the impact of rising sea levels on property values, recreation and quality of life in coastal North Carolina.

The study was conducted by researchers from Appalachian State University, East Carolina University, University of North Carolina Wilmington and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

Their conclusion?

* North Carolina's coastal topography makes it especially vulnerable to sea level rise and hurricanes -- both economically and ecologically.

*The value of property at risk to sea-level rise in just four NC counties is US$6.9 million.

* A one- to three-foot rise in sea level along four North Carolina coastal counties could mean billions of dollars in private property losses over the next 75 years.

* Recreational fishing and beach trips also are vulnerable to increased erosion from sea level rise and hurricanes, resulting in potential loss of recreational and tourism benefits totalling US$3.9 billion.

* Business losses from hurricanes could increase by as much as US$157 million per storm event by 2080, potentially reaching US$1 bn per category 3 storm event.

All of this is sobering news for communities that derive their livelihoods in large part from an annual influx island visitors and second-home owners.

According to the study, by the year 2080, 14 of the 17 recreational swimming beaches in southern North Carolina could, without adaptation, erode all the way to the road, eliminating the possibility for beach recreation in those areas.

As the beach diminishes, lead author John Whitehead, a professor of economics at Appalachian State University, people will spend less time and money at the coast as a result of the lost recreational opportunities. Using economic models, Whitehead estimated the lost economic value for southern North Carolina beaches would total $3.9 billion over the next 75 years.

Meanwhile, coastal developers and private home communities are springing up in very unlikely places. Condos, golf courses, and resorts are popping up along the edges of coastal spits and dunes, and at least one development advertised its "deep water homes."

Deep water homes? Now there's a concept whose time may be coming. Scuba gear included.

In another curious development in a recent Coastal Living magazine: the state of Colorado advertized its charms to CL readers. Do they know something we don't know?

Read the full or summary reports: Measuring Impact NC

Social Entrepreneurs: The Purpose Prize Finalists

My friends Howard and Marika Stone, founders of 2young2retire.com have just been named 2007 Purpose Prize Fellows. The Purpose Prize, a major new initiative started by Civic Ventures, invests in Americans over 60 who are leading a new age of social innovation by providing five awards of $100,000 and ten awards of $10,000.

The winners reveal the wide variety of backgrounds and experiences that those over 60 bring to the task of solving some of society's most pressing problems in what used to be called the retirement years. (Finalists include Interface's Ray Anderson, Project 18's Gloria Jackson Bacon, the Reverend Sally Bingham, who is leading a religious response to global warming, Richard Cherry of New York's Community Environmental Center, and Bridges to Understanding founder Phil Borges.)

"As the first wave of America’s 77 million baby boomers turn 60, The Purpose Prize winners are doing what society least expects people over 60 to do: innovate," said Marc Freedman, founder and President of Civic Ventures.

"These men and women - some national figures, some local heroes - disprove the notion that innovation is the province of the young and show us the essence of what's possible in an aging society."

Howie and Marika started "Too Young to Retire" after successful careers in international advertising sales and public relations/journalism. Rejecting the idea of retirement as "a great place to visit but who would want to live there?" Howie built a coaching practice to help other mature people skip retirement and discover their own continuing passions and Marika pursued her mission of "helping people -- especially women of a certain age -- achieve their full potential."

The couple wrote a book, Too Young to Retire: An Off-Road Map to the Rest of Your Life and started the web resource 2young2retire.com.

Howie and Marika have long inspired me to keep focused on the purpose and meaning of my life. In fact, it was Howie's informal coaching some 16 years ago that led me to realize I could leave a publishing career for work with The Nature Conservancy.

Congratulations to Marika and Howie on being named 2007 Purpose Prize Fellows!

Social Entrepreneurs: David Bornstein Interview on "Global X"

I'm a big fan of David Bornstein. His book, How to Change the World: Social Entrepreneurs and the Power of Ideas is a powerful and inspirational work of journalism and the book I'd recommend to anyone interested in social change.

I've been reading his first book, The Price of a Dream: The Story of the Grameen Bank, which is an engaging look at Muhammad Yunus, how he fell into banking for the poor, and the idea of microfinance.

Global X, on the Skoll Foundation's Social Edge website, is posting short (3-7 minutes) interviews with leading social entrepreneurs telling stories about the significant impacts on their lives and how they see the world in 2017. The interviews were shot at the 2007 Skoll World Forum at Oxford from the Skoll World Forum.

Bornstein's interview is wonderful, especially the story about his Aunt Suzan, who told him to "climb the fence of the playground" and not follow the rules all the time. Good advice for anyone seeking social change.

Watch the interview here: David Bornstein on "Global X"

Conservation Mission Success: My 15 Year Journey

It was 15 years ago today that I set up shop in The Nature Conservancy. I walked into the offices of what was then the Lower Hudson Chapter with a bag of tricks, a drive to change, and a desire to help the Conservancy achieve its mission of protecting the diversity of life on Earth.

The Conservancy took a chance on me: I had little experience, having spent my previous career years in various forms of publishing, from producing my own magazine to scouting for foreign publishers to the editorial staff at a tradition- and whiskey-soaked publishing house. They were looking for their first development and communications staffer; I was looking for meaningful work and a vehicle for making social change happen on an unprecedented scale.

I believed then, as I do now, that one of the most critical roles in conservation, indeed in any public benefit or civil sector corporation, is that of helping other people act on their values.

Along the way, I've had some tremendous mentors, including Kay Sprinkel Grace, Simone Joyaux, and Scott Schultz (three of the best fundraising management consultants in the business) who operate outside the organization, to Julie Rosenfeld and Mason Morfit from within; from Carter Bales from the Conservancy's board of governors to Harry Groome and Jan Portman from the organization's current board of directors. Phoebe Driscoll, Robin Potter, Ken Thompson, Al Parrish, Gene Sykes, Mary Clifford, Terry Pelster, Tom Dolan, Tom Rosenberg, Dick Eales, Chris Earl, Ted Robb, Boyce Budd, Hugh Moulton, all trustees from the various state programs with which I worked, taught me the value of perseverance and critical thinking in the face of great challenges.

My chapter directors, including Olivia Millard, Susan Ruddy, and Randy Gray, and initiative directors such as Lynne Hale, Jeff Hardesty, and Brian Richter, inspired me with confidence and a guiding hand. And David Whitehead, Stephanie Meeks, Mark Burget, Roberto Troya, Rili Djohani, Steve McCormick, the "Skeptics," Holley, Jill, and the late John Sawhill all helped keep me focused on the long-term view of our global mission. Together, we've wrestled with the growth and expansion of the Conservancy's vision and fulfillment of its mission. Some have moved on, but their spirit remains.

The list could go on. Indeed, so many people have contributed to my success at the Conservancy, from those on my very first team, through my two "best hires" and two "best inherited" employees, to my current team, which I'm convinced is the hardest working group in the Conservancy, tirelessly pushing the horizon of the organization's worldview and its face on the global stage.

And the donors. I won't name them here, but they know who they are and what we've accomplished together: from building the Neversink Bioreserve in New York to protecting Lower Talarik Creek in Alaska; from forming Pennsylvania's West Branch Wilderness to mapping protected areas and sacred sites in Mongolia; from helping local people secure Podocarpus Park in Ecuador to helping put Indonesia's Coral Triangle on the map.

All this and more we've accomplished together from the simple gift of acting on shared values and an ambition to be the best in the business at achieving ever-increasing scales in conservation.

It's been a great run. Fifteen years is longer than most people stay with one organization these days, certainly in the functional area within which I've operated, and it's longer than I ever anticipated on that day in 1992 when I walked into the Conservancy's little office in Katonah, New York.

Here's to fifteen years and the millions of acres we've protected together, the millions of lives upon which we've had a positive impact, and the multiple millions of dollars we have mobilized together in the service of conservation, of saving the last great places on Earth.

A friend of mine, and a long-time donor to the Conservancy, used to tell me I had the best job in the world. He was right.

And on this first day of summer 2007, while I stand on the edge of that 15-year precipice trying to see what's ahead for me, I thought it best to reflect on the work that my colleagues, donors, friends and partners have accomplished together. The change we have affected. So much has changed for me and for the organization over these past fifteen years, and much continues to change.

But isn't change the whole reason I got into this business in the first place? Isn't that the job of a change agent?

Here's to 15 years. Thank you.