tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9310432.post114234992511923608..comments2024-03-28T13:36:17.850-05:00Comments on The Green Skeptic: Climate Change: Must Read - The Weather Makers by Tim Flannerygreenskeptichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11794484456743626107noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9310432.post-67206806107743970552007-10-11T23:19:00.000-05:002007-10-11T23:19:00.000-05:00Here's a recent explanation from a trusted source,...Here's a recent explanation from a trusted source, Gavin Schmidt at RealClimate, worth reading his post and the comments that follow:<BR/>http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/10/co2-equivalents/The Green Skeptichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14109745749448651817noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9310432.post-59978746733457212612007-09-12T22:51:00.000-05:002007-09-12T22:51:00.000-05:00The anonymous comment was a more accurate reflecti...The anonymous comment was a more accurate reflection of what was implied and even what now Flannery seems to believe.<BR/><BR/>Just look at the numbers:<BR/><BR/>13.7C = 286.85K<BR/><BR/>so for a 2C rise <BR/><BR/>15.7C = 288.85K<BR/><BR/>Proportionately: 288.85/286.85<BR/><BR/>is 1.00697 or a 0.697% increase<BR/><BR/>He is of course working with the ratio 15.7/13.7<BR/><BR/>which is 1.14599 or a 14.599% increase<BR/><BR/>Flannery's serious error is made all the forceful by his follow on comment "if you or I suffered a proportionate increase in temperature of that scale we'd be dead".<BR/><BR/>And indeed working on the basis of his nonsense analysis, a 37C (=98.6F) normal body temperature becomes 42.4C (108.32F) so pretty much dead, although apparently 115F has been survived...<BR/><BR/>The correct analysis would be a 0.697% absolute increase, yielding a body temperature of 102.5F: so feverish but alive and kicking...<BR/><BR/>Of course over the last century or so the increase in global mean temperatures has been approximately 0.6C, which translates to a percentage of 0.21% in absolute temperature terms.<BR/><BR/>In other words there would have to be a 4 or 5 times bigger change than last century over this next to reach the "heights" of an absolute temperature change of 1%.<BR/><BR/>One day we'll all be IPCC-sceptics.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10301618390888432133noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9310432.post-1144722488945435932006-04-10T21:28:00.000-05:002006-04-10T21:28:00.000-05:00Here is how Flannery responded to my email, sent t...Here is how Flannery responded to my email, sent through his publisher:<BR/><BR/>"I cannot remember my exact words, but I think the listener misheard me.<BR/><BR/>I would have said a large or significant increase, I think.<BR/><BR/>Best wishes,<BR/><BR/>Tim Flannery"The Green Skeptichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14109745749448651817noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9310432.post-1144722394393095662006-04-10T21:26:00.000-05:002006-04-10T21:26:00.000-05:00I reached out to Flannery and also listened to NPR...I reached out to Flannery and also listened to NPR's Fresh Air broadcast on their archives. <BR/><BR/>What Flannery actually said was, "What the scientists can say is that all the models suggest that there will be a certain degree of warming, somewhere between 2 and 11 degrees...2 degrees is a very substantial amount of warming. After all, the surface temperature of our planet before the industrial revolution was only 13.7 degrees...so the proportionate increase of 2 degrees on top of that is quite large." <BR/><BR/>This does not appear to be the same as what you heard.The Green Skeptichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14109745749448651817noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9310432.post-1143352067578436082006-03-26T00:47:00.000-05:002006-03-26T00:47:00.000-05:00I just heard Flannery on "Fresh Air", and he made ...I just heard Flannery on "Fresh Air", and he made an incredibly innumerate comment; he said the 2C rise in global temperature is a more than 10% rise in temperature, since the global average is only 13.5C.<BR/><BR/>That is idiotic and suggests he is no scientist. In order to calculate % increase in temperature you need to use a scale that starts at absolute zero, such as Kelvin, not a scale with an arbitrary zero like Celsius or Fahrenheit. It made me skeptical of his expertise.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com